WHAT WE KNOW:
Let’s start with the easy stuff – who’s going nowhere in 2024? Reigning World Champion Francesco Bagnaia will be riding a Ducati Lenovo Team-painted Desmosedici next season, with Aprilia Racing’s factory line-up of Aleix Espargaro and Maverick Viñales also unchanged. The same goes for Red Bull KTM Factory Racing, they’ll be lining up with Brad Binder and Jack Miller, while Fabio Quartararo will remain as a Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP™ rider.
Now, we’ll take a factory-by-factory look at what’s the latest in the 2024 rumour mill.
DUCATI:
We know that Enea Bastianini (Ducati Lenovo Team) has a 2024 contract in place with Ducati, but not directly with the factory team. That being said, it would be a huge shock to see ‘The Beast’ not racing in Bologna red alongside Pecco next season.
Earlier on in the year, Jorge Martin (Prima Pramac Racing) had been strongly linked with a move away from Ducati. Yamaha was the much-talked-about destination for the Spaniard, but those rumours have significantly cooled in the last couple of months. Now though, Martin has pretty much extinguished any conversation about him moving away from Ducati having said this at Assen:
There’s a question mark over Martin’s current teammate Johann Zarco. The Frenchman doesn’t currently have a 2024 MotoGP™ contract, so he’s a name that could potentially leave. The same goes for premier class sophomore Fabio Di Giannantonio (Gresini Racing MotoGP™), with fellow Gresini star Alex Marquez also not currently signed up to Ducati for 2024 – but there’s a reason for that.
Gresini Racing MotoGP™ isn’t yet confirmed to be racing Ducatis in 2024, but Ducati Corse Sporting Director Paolo Ciabatti hinted that Gresini looks set to continue being an Independent Ducati Team. Once that is 100% confirmed by both Ducati and Gresini, rider news should follow shortly after.
One name that has been heavily linked to Gresini is current Moto2™ World Championship leader Tony Arbolino (Elf Marc VDS Racing Team). “I would love to be there… I will sit and see in July, a long summer break,” said Arbolino ahead of the Italian GP. His personal manager, Carlo Pernat, is closely linked with Gresini, with the wise Italian also Bastianini’s manager.
Then we come to Mooney VR46 Racing Team’s Marco Bezzecchi and Luca Marini. The latter looks like it’s all but confirmed that he’ll be staying in VR46 black and yellow in 2024, but in recent weeks, talk of title-chasing Bezzecchi moving elsewhere in the Ducati family has gathered a bit of pace.
There are a few moving parts in Ducati’s 2024 line-up. Once one seat is confirmed by the Bologna factory, expect the other cogs to fall into place soon after.
YAMAHA:
We come to Yamaha next because if Bezzecchi was to move out of the Mooney VR46 squad, then Franco Morbidelli’s (Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP™) name has been mentioned as a possible replacement. It would make sense. Morbidelli is part of the closely knit VR46 Academy and if there’s an open seat, Valentino Rossi and co would obviously welcome Morbidelli with open arms.
If Bezzecchi stays put, though, then the options for Morbidelli aren’t as straightforward. When pressed about his future at the Italian GP, the 2020 MotoGP™ runner-up had this to say:
Once Toprak Razgatlioglu had confirmed he’d be switching to BMW in WorldSBK, Morbidelli signing up for another year with Yamaha naturally became a stronger possibility. However, that interview raised plenty of questions about Morbidelli even wanting to stay at Yamaha.
Yamaha obviously has a decision to make. Speaking to motogp.com back in Austin, Yamaha’s Lin Jarvis said their “number one choice” would be Morbidelli. Jarvis also said, “All of these types of considerations, really, happen at the end of the first half of the season. Then we need to know, he needs to know, everyone needs to know for their planning for next year.”
The end of the first half of the season has arrived, so Morbidelli is one of the big names to keep an eye on.
KTM/GASGAS:
As we’ve already discussed, the factory team is set. Binder and Miller aren’t going anywhere, so that means it’s all eyes on GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3.
One name, in particular, has given the KTM and GASGAS hierarchy some headaches: Pedro Acosta (Red Bull KTM Ajo). Acosta and his camp have made it clear that Moto2™ “isn’t an option” for 2024, and it’s well documented that the deadline for KTM to offer Acosta a MotoGP™ seat is June 30th. The ball is firmly in KTM’s court on this one. Acosta will be moving to the premier class in 2024, but will it be with the KTM family?
With Pol Espargaro having a contract for 2024, it’s unlikely we’ll see the #44 – who hasn’t raced so far in 2023 due to the injuries he sustained in Portimao – not dressed in GASGAS Tech3 red again next year. That, then, more than likely leaves one seat for Acosta to fill if KTM decides to keep the Spanish starlet – and that’s the one currently occupied by reigning Moto2™ World Champion Augusto Fernandez.
Fernandez has been impressive in his rookie premier class campaign, with the highlight coming with a superb P4 at the French GP. This is where KTM’s very tough decision comes into play. Do they risk losing Acosta to a rival manufacturer and keep Fernandez, or do they opt to bring Acosta into MotoGP™ and decide to let Fernandez go? It won’t be long before we know the answer.
HONDA:
The obvious, main topic of conversation when it comes to Honda is Marc Marquez’s situation. The eight-time World Champion has a contract with HRC for 2024, but after what’s unfolded in recent weeks – most notably the five crashes in Germany and subsequent injuries – the #93’s future isn’t certain.
As Repsol Honda Team Manager Alberto Puig admits, Honda is in a “really bad” situation with their RC213V. That’s led to Marquez being in one of his “most difficult professional moments.” The summer break feels like a crucial five weeks for Marquez and Honda’s future. If a premature break up was to happen, and that’s a big if, the 2024 silly season would rev into overdrive. Marquez leaving Honda before the end of 2024 is a highly complex avenue. But it’s not an impossible one.
Elsewhere, Joan Mir (Repsol Honda Team) and Alex Rins (LCR Honda Castrol) do have Honda contracts for 2024. With both Spaniards sustaining injuries at the Italian GP, we’ve not had the chance to quiz them about where they currently sit in the 2024 jigsaw puzzle, but it would be a surprise to see either not riding at their current respective teams next season.
Then we come to Takaaki Nakagami (LCR Honda Idemitsu). The Japanese rider’s HRC contract is up at the end of 2023, so Nakagami is one of the riders we might not see on the grid in 2024. Ai Ogura (Idemitsu Honda Team Asia) is the stand-out candidate for that seat, but has the Japanese rider’s serious wrist injury that has plighted his 2023 Moto2™ campaign put a move to MotoGP™ in 2024 on hold? Possibly. Does Ogura also feel like moving to Honda – after his injury woes and given the factory’s current situation – in 2024? We don’t know the answer to that yet. An interesting decision lies ahead of Honda here.
APRILIA:
As mentioned, Aleix Espargaro and Viñales will spearhead the Noale factory’s efforts in 2024. Therefore, we turn our attention to CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP™ Team’s Miguel Oliveira and Raul Fernandez.
Earlier this season, speaking at Aprilia’s All-Star event in Misano, Aprilia Racing CEO Massimo Rivola shut down any talk of tweaks to their rider line-up being made for 2024. Both riders penned two-year deals, so it doesn’t look like anything will change at RNF next season.
With the summer break here, we’re going to begin to find out where some of the riders in question will be racing in 2024 and beyond. Keep your eyes peeled!