(1). In a meeting with US officials Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of naval operations iterated his position on the geopolitical risk of China invading Taiwan:
(2). Could the Russian invasion be just the beginning?
By Likam Kyanzaire
The Russian War Against Ukraine is the defining geopolitical conflict of the twenty-first century. The violent confrontation between the former Soviet states has upset the delicate American hegemonic order and empowered nations to improve their military capabilities, re-evaluate their diplomatic standing and prepare for a multipolar world. Since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, BRIC nations have made plans for a competing global currency, Iran has normalized relations with archenemy Saudi Arabia and Japan has begun rearming its military. Just a year into a growing war of attrition the world is already feeling the effects of this conflict (not to mention the civil strife from increased energy and food prices).
With all that said could the Russian invasion be just the beginning? In a meeting with US officials Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of naval operations iterated his position on the geopolitical risk of China invading Taiwan:
“When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind that has to be a 2022 window or potentially a 2023 window,” Gilday told the Atlantic Council on Wednesday.
Now of course China did not invade in 2022, but the idea that a high-ranking US official thinks the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is high this year is stark. China, the world’s 2nd most powerful nation, has been open about its position on Taiwan. Taiwan, according to leader-for-life Xi Jinping, is a territory of China. It is common knowledge that China is determined to get the territory back under its control after its loss to the Japanese over a century ago. But today Taiwanese do not see themselves as Chinese at least politically. The split between the two ethnically homogenous regions has its origin in the Chinese Civil War.
The Chinese Civil War
The Chinese Civil War was a long and complex conflict that lasted from 1945 to 1949, resulting in the establishment of the People’s Republic of China on the mainland and the retreat of the defeated Nationalist forces to Taiwan. The war was fought between the Communist Party of China (CPC), led by Mao Zedong, and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) under Chiang Kai-shek. The conflict grew out of decades of political, economic and social tensions between these two factions. The CPC gained support among peasants with their policies like land reform while KMT sought Western-style democracy with limited success. Following their defeat on the mainland, KMT moved their government to Taiwan, where they imposed martial law until 1987. Despite political disagreements between both sides, peaceful relations have been maintained for over a century with minimal military action taken by either side after the cessation of hostilities in 1949 through talks like “The Three Links”.
After the civil war, the Communist Party of China went on to suffer under the lacklustre policies of founder Mao Zedong. At this point, Taiwan was starting its economic ascendancy, helped by American military and economic aid. By the time China began its liberalization effort in 1979 Taiwan was already an ‘East Asian Tiger’ the moniker given to the handful of Asian nations growing at extraordinary levels. By the 1990s Taiwan was joining the club of industrialized nations along the West, Japan and Singapore. At this time China was in the middle of its economic transformation. Today while China does have a much larger GDP at $18 trillion USD compared to Taiwan’s $770 billion USD, Taiwan’s GDP per capita is about twice China’s at around $32000. This makes Taiwan one of the most prosperous areas in the world, while China is a world power second only to the US.
The TSMC Advantage
A big part of the rise of Taiwan to a highly developed nation is its control over the technology supply chain.
Taiwan is home to one of the world’s largest semiconductor chip manufacturers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Founded in 1987, TSMC pioneered the foundry model for manufacturing chips, which involves producing chips for companies that don’t have their own factories. The company’s technology is highly advanced compared to other foundries and boasts a track record of producing high-quality and efficient computer chips. TSMC has been an integral part of the global digital ecosystem, playing a significant role in producing chips for major technology companies such as Apple Inc., Qualcomm Inc., and Nvidia Corporation. As the demand for high-performance computer chips continues to increase, TSMC has remained at the forefront of innovation and has garnered recognition from industry experts as one of the most critical players in global technology supply chains today.
TSMC is directly responsible for around 92% of the semiconductor chips on the world market, especially the higher-end versions that go into military, satellite and high-tech equipment. This supply chain dominance is enough to crash the market should that supply be cut. This is dangerous for the US, China and all other nations on the planet. The ubiquity of technology has made Taiwan an integral member of the global community. But their advantage is a double-edged sword. According to experts, if China were able to dominate the island, China would have control over one of the most important supply chains of the 21st century and have a very advantageous position in the growing civil war with the US. The economic dimension is another reason experts are ringing alarm bells over a possible invasion. The fear of Chinese control over the semiconductor industry is further provoking war:
““The United States and its allies are never going to let those factories fall into Chinese hands,” Ambassador Robert O’Brien told me during a conversation airing today at the Global Security Forum organized by the Soufan Centre in Doha, Qatar.
War of the 2030s
Projections from Tsinghua University make a compelling case that China’s oil and gas imports will peak between 2030 and 2035. Many use the period of peak oil and gas demand as a correlation of peak geopolitical power. Already facing a growing population crisis, insane amounts of household debt and a disastrous housing market, China’s fading status is another factor leading experts to think they would attack within the next ten years roughly.
While China has been testing the Taiwanese air force by continually invading their airspace a full invasion is unlikely due to the sheer scale necessary. Taiwan is a rather isolated island hundreds of miles from the mainland. The distance between China and Taiwan at its closest is similar to that of Cuba and Florida on the US coast. on top of that half of Taiwan is mountainous and unsuitable to an invasion by sea. And while the People’s Liberation Army has been preparing for multiple threats on several borders, the Taiwanese military has staunchly focused on defending its territory from the Chinese Communist Party.
Whether the US chooses to militarily defend Taiwan or not, China will have a huge problem taking the territory. that does not mean it is not possible. If there is enough political will China could take the island, but at such a risk it would demote them from a budding superpower into another middle power on par with Russia or Iran. With very little to no check on his power, Xi Jinping could very well force the country into a costly and ultimately fruitless war that would automatically become the most important conflict of the twenty-first century. And if the US enters the conflict it could be the most important military conflict in history.