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Consumer Price Index Declines less Than 1% in September

In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.8% year-over-year, down from a 4.0% gain in August. The year-over-year deceleration was broad-based, stemming from lower prices for some travel-related services, durable goods and groceries.

Consumer Price Index Declines less Than 1% in September

Offsetting the deceleration in the all-items CPI was a year-over-year increase in gasoline prices, which rose at a faster pace in September (+7.5%) compared with August (+0.8%) due to a base-year effect. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.7% in September, following a 4.1% increase in August.

Consumer Price Index Declines less Than 1% in September
Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada

Every month, the CPI fell 0.1% in September, after a 0.4% gain in August. The monthly slowdown was mainly driven by lower month-over-month prices for gasoline (-1.3%) in September. Seasonally adjusted monthly, the CPI rose 0.2%, stemming from travel-related services.

Chart 1  Chart 1: 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI excluding gasoline
12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI excluding gasoline

Chart 1: 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI excluding gasoline

Chart 2  Chart 2: Price growth slows in five major components
Price growth slows in five major components

Price growth for groceries continues to slow but remains elevated

Price growth for groceries continued to slow in September but remained above headline inflation, rising 5.8% year over year, following a 6.9% increase in August. The deceleration stemmed from year-over-year slowdowns in meat (+4.4%), dairy products (+4.0%) and coffee and tea (+2.7%), which were mainly driven by base-year effects. Large monthly gains in September 2022, when grocery prices increased at the fastest pace in 41 years, fell out of the 12-month movements and put downward pressure on the indexes.

In contrast, prices for fresh fruit (+3.0%), fish (+5.1%), bakery products (+8.0%) and edible fats and oils (+14.8%) increased at a faster pace on a year-over-year basis in September compared with August.

Consumer Price Index Declines less Than 1% in September

Chart 3  Chart 3: Prices decelerate for some food products while others accelerate
Prices decelerate for some food products while others accelerate

Consumers pay less for airfares

Consumers paid less on a year-over-year basis for air transportation (-21.1%) in September, coinciding with a gradual increase in flights offered by airlines over the previous 12 months.

Consumer Price Index Declines less Than 1% in September

Prices for durable goods decelerate

Prices for durable goods rose at a slower pace year over year in September (+0.4%) compared with August (+1.4%). The purchase of new passenger vehicles index contributed the most to the slowdown, rising 1.7% year over year in September, following a 3.1% gain in August. The deceleration in the price of new passenger vehicles was partly attributable to improved inventory levels compared with a year ago.

Additionally, furniture prices (-4.6%) and household appliances (-2.3%) continued to decline on a year-over-year basis in September, also contributing to the slowdown in durable goods.

Chart 4  Chart 4: Price growth accelerates in non-durable goods
Price growth accelerates in non-durable goods

 

Regional highlights

Year over year, prices increased in all provinces in September but rose at a slower pace compared with August in six provinces.

Chart 5  Chart 5: The Consumer Price Index rises at a slower pace in six provinces
The Consumer Price Index rises at a slower pace in six provinces

Gasoline prices accelerate on base-year effect

Year over year, gasoline prices rose 7.5% at the national level in September, following a 0.8% increase in August. A base-year effect mainly drove the increase, as prices fell 7.4% month over month in September 2022, amid an increase in the global supply of crude oil.

Prices at the pump accelerated the most in Eastern Canada on a year-over-year basis in September 2023. In Western Canada, refinery shutdowns limited supply in September 2022, which kept gasoline prices higher that year. As a result, gasoline prices in western provinces did not fall to the same extent from August to September 2022.

Consumer Price Index Declines less Than 1% in September

Chart 6  Chart 6: Gasoline prices accelerate the most in Eastern Canada
Gasoline prices accelerate the most in Eastern Canada

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